Don't Expect OPEC's Oil Deal To Fall Apart in 2018


The contract jumped to $68.27/Bbl in the previous session, also the highest since May 2015.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for February delivery added 29 cents to settle at $61.73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

A senior OPEC source from a major Middle Eastern oil producer said on Monday that OPEC was monitoring unrest in Iran as well as Venezuela's economic crisis, but will boost output only if there are significant and sustained production disruptions from those countries.

This week's supply reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the USA government's Energy Information Administration are predicted to reveal that us crude stocks dropped by 4.1 million barrels, an eighth week of decline.

Traders and analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect government data due Wednesday to show crude stockpiles declined on average by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended January 5, which would mark the eighth consecutive week of inventory draws if estimates are accurate.

"We expect oil demand growth to outpace non-OPEC supply growth in both 2018 and 2019", analysts stated.

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Traders said political tensions in Iran, the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, had pushed prices higher.

"In view of sharply falling USA crude stocks and record-high compliance with the production cuts by OPEC, market participants are convinced that the market is continuing to tighten", according to analysts at Commerzbank. The price of Brent has risen roughly almost 30% over the past year.

"Led by USA production, particularly the Permian Basin, and now new oil sands projects in Canada, non-OPEC production is forecast to continue growing through the end of 2019", John Conti, the agency's acting administrator, said in a statement.

Despite this, US production is expected soon to rise above 10 million barrels per day, largely thanks to soaring output from shale drillers.

Some analysts have said a rise in US shale oil production could discourage OPEC and Russian Federation to maintain their deal to curb supply until the end of the year for fears of losing market share.

Futures advanced 0.5 percent on Monday, settling near $62 a barrel in NY.